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After President Trump bombed Iranian nuclear sites, he said the sites were “obliterated.” But some commentators doubted this after looking at satellite pictures. Moreover, they said that Trump warned Iran ahead of time so that they could move their nuclear material elsewhere. The Iranians sent missiles to the US base in Qatar, but Trump accepted this retaliation, saying only that this is the end of it. A ceasefire was in order.
The view was that Trump felt the need to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities mildly to prevent Netanyahu from doing it in an all-out war that could quickly escalate to a nuclear level.
I was somewhat skeptical of their analysis until Trump’s R-rated outburst against Netanyahu, letting the whole world know that he was very dissatisfied with his attempt to scuttle the ceasefire. That seemed to confirm that he was really serious about ending this Israeli-Iran conflict.
Today Trump himself confirmed that the Iranians notified the US government that they were going to send some missiles against the US base in Qatar. Trump said,
“Iran was very nice, they gave us warning. They said we’re going to shoot them. Is 1 o’clock ok?
I said it’s fine… and everybody was emptied off the base, so they couldn’t get hurt.”
I believe that Trump was revealing only half the picture. Both sides, in fact, tipped off the other. Iran’s warning was reciprocal after Trump’s warning. Trump wanted to limit the damage and eliminate the possibility of spreading nuclear material that would endanger lives.
But why did Trump expose this to the public? I think he did it to limit the diplomatic damage. After all, the world reaction to Trump’s attack scuttled the negotiations that had been scheduled for the next few days. This essentially weaponized the diplomatic process and destroyed any remaining trust that may have existed—not a good idea. Furthermore, with Pakistan threatening to give Iran nuclear weapons, it is clear that the situation was in danger of getting totally out of control.
So Trump essentially confessed that this was largely a sham military exchange between the US and Iran. I wish the same could be said about the Israeli attack on Iran on June 13.
Trump’s outburst against Netanyahu suggests that he actually attacked Iran in order to prevent a larger Israeli strike that could quickly erupt into World War 3.